NBL Round 4 : More Upsets To Come?

Already in Round 4 of NBL action we have seen the Wildcats beat the Tigers by 4 in Melbourne and the Taipans show up as rude visitors in New Zealand, winning by 11 at the North Shore Events Centre. Both of these, whilst not Earth-shattering, were upset victories for the visiting teams. Are there more upsets to come in Round 4?

Tonight the Wildcats try to follow up on their victory with a visit to the Wollongong Hawks. Kavossy Franklin has not been his usual self for the Hawks in the last couple of games and they will need for him to fire up if they are to beat one of the top form teams in the competition. However the Wildcats certainly have been relying on the streaky outside shots of both Darnell Hinson and Peter Crawford of late and will need their inside men to contribute to ensure the win.

A Stern Prediction: Wildcats by 8

The Gold Coast Blaze are visited tonight by the Sydney Spirit, as two of the lower rung teams of the league battle it out. Shane Heal is hopeful of leading his team to a first win of the season and pull them out of the situation of being the only team to be winless. Former Houston Rocket Juaquin Hawkins will be playing through the pain and that inspiration, along with a rabid home crowd, should be enough to pull the Blaze through to a deserved first win.

A Stern Prediction: Blaze by 5

Tomorrow night the Melbourne Tigers will host the dangerous Adelaide 36ers, who welcome the questionable fitness of Adam Ballinger and Aaron Bruce into the squad for the match. Adelaide have already shown that they are a team to be feared with numerous options all over the court, however the cornered Tigers will be looking to make up to their loss to the Wildcats and should please their home fans with a W.

A Stern Prediction: Tigers by 8

The extremely busy Wildcats will be in Sydney to take on the Spirit tomorrow night as well. This could be a rare 2008-09 opportunity for the Spirit to snare a prized scalp, with the Wildcats playing their third game in four days and possibly showing the signs of travelling across the wide Nullarbor. The Spirit have the weapons on a good night (Derrick Low, Matt Knight, Liam Rush, Dave Gruber) to shock some teams and this may be just that night.

A Stern Prediction: Spirit by 3




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Today's NBL Video Warnings : 9 October, 2008

Townsville Crocs News



Gaze TV Episode 4



Brief highlight: Isiah Victor dunk versus the Tigers






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NBL Round 3 : Blowout Round

So far Round 3 of National Basketball League action has been all about the art of the blowout. The round started with the Wildcats showing some 13 point home hospitality. The Breakers then welcomed the 36ers to the land of the long white cloud with a 38 point drubbing. The Dragons then paid a visit to the Hammer with a 17 point win.

Then last night the Tigers made much easier work of the Taipans than most would have expected, knocking them off by 24 points.

Tomorrow the Dragons visit the Hawks. The home team from the 'Gong will be looking for a stronger performance from Kavossy Franklin than they got in Perth a couple of days ago. One thing about the Hawks is they know how to fight. I would not be surprised to see an upset win from them here. Look for Glen Saville to defend his home court and Cam Tragardh to step it up. NBL official preview.

A Stern Prediction: Hawks by 5

The Crocs welcome the Wildcats to the not-so-welcoming Swamp. Look out for a JR explosion, backed up by the still recovering Rosell Ellis (the Love Doctor). The Cats are looking strong lately, as are the Crocs, so this should be a great match. Check out John Rillie's preview of the match, including some milestones that will be reached. NBL official preview.

A Stern Prediction: Crocs by 3

Other Aussie basketball news

* Memories from Gonzaga of Axel Dench and John Rillie.

* Kristi Harrower is trying to get back to play for the Bendigo Spirit.

* More hoops news from World Hoops Blog.



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NBL : Round 2 : Busy Dragons to take on Crocs

Round One of NBL action is over and the South Dragons have been busy little ballers. The only team to play three games in the first week of the season, Brian Goorjian's troops managed to come out with two wins -- both of them against the reloaded Perth Wildcats, who are smarting after the loss of captain Paul Rogers for more weeks than first thought.

Goorjian even managed to rack up his 700th career win at Challenge Stadium, after rallying his troops from a season-opening loss to the Cairns Taipans up north. Swingman Joe Ingles appears to have returned strongly from his Olympic campaign and new additions Mark Worthington, Adam Gibson and Mika Vukona have been absorbed into the side well. Imports Cortez Groves and Tremmell Darden look like they have an easy squad to work with where they won't have to shoulder the full load every night.

John Rillie's Townsville Crocodiles have recovered from their tough loss to the Adelaide 36ers and are ready to take on the Dragons in Melbourne on Thursday. The 36ers are stacked (like many teams this season) and may surprise many observers in 2008/09 (including the Stern Predictions made this preseason on this site), so the Crocs' loss to them should not be a major disappointment. It must be remembered that Townsville is in an adjustment process after a few injuries rocked their preseason preparation, along with the addition of key piece Russell Hinder and almost-addition of Rosell Ellis. In short, the Crocs are a team to be feared -- there won't be many nights this season where JR let's the opposition off that lightly.

Meanwhile Wednesday night sees the 36ers host the Sydney Spirit. This match could be a complete demolition job by the boys from South Australia if they play the same way they did versus Townsville. With Brett Maher knocking them down from all over, Aaron Bruce running the point, Mark Tyndale doing his best Julius Hodge impression and Luke Schenscher and Adam Ballinger filling up the paint, it will be tough for the Spirit to walk away with anything better than a 10 point loss. The Spirit will however get a chance for revenge if they do fall to the Sixers, with a return gig on Saturday, albeit in Canberra at the AIS, as they try to spread the NBL love back in the nation's capital.

In one of many very entertaining games this round, the New Zealand Breakers will host the Melbourne Tigers at the NSEC. This will be a very good test for the Tigers to see how strong their title credentials are. NZ are over-brimming with offensive talent, particularly from the perimeter, as CJ Bruton and Kirk Penney absolutely destroy teams on three balls. Rick Rickert will be a handful for Chris Anstey inside. But the real measure of the Breakers will be their interior D, as there isn't much going on inside apart from Rickert. Anstey, Rod Grizzard and Sam Mackinnon may well test that aspect of the NZers.

Friday night sees Shane Heal lead his Blaze boys over to Perth, where both teams try to rack up win number one for the season, as both squads find themselves at 0-2. It will be a struggle for the Blaze, as the Wildcats certainly know how to throw a party in WA and have the firepower to scare any team in this league. Meanwhile James Harvey is returning from injury and Luke Whitehead is still somewhat of a question mark.

Home cooking is always sweet. That is what the Crocs will be serving up on Saturday as they welcome the Cairns Taipans to the Swamp. Don't expect any niceties from JR, Homicide and the crew as they take on the 2-0 Taipans. Cattalini, Black and co have been firing well so far, but they will need to have rested well in their week-long break for this QLD matchup.

Round 2 Matchups and Stern Predictions

36ers v Spirit : 36ers by 11

Breakers v Tigers : Tigers by 3

Dragons v Crocodiles : Dragons by 2

Wildcats v Blaze : Wildcats by 13

Spirit v 36ers : 36ers by 1

Crocodiles v Taipans : Crocs by 6

Review of Round 1 Stern Predictions

Here are the results of Round 1, with my predicted winner with the margin in brackets, followed by the actual result in bold:

Taipans v Dragons (1) : Taipans by 6

Spirit v Tigers (12) : Tigers by 10

Dragons (4) v Wildcats : Dragons by 16

Breakers (10) v Hawks : Breakers by 21

36ers v Crocs (3) : 36ers by 27

Blaze v Taipans (11) : Taipans by 10

Wildcats (4) v Dragons : Dragons by 4

Tigers v Blaze* : Tigers by 16

Hawks v Spirit* : Hawks by 12

* No Stern Predictions were made for these games

Total Record to date: 4-3

Not doing as well as might be hoped so far -- I'm sternly warning myself as you read this!

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NBL : Round 1 return of Wildcats v Dragons

Round One of NBL action is almost at an end, with tomorrow's re-match of the Perth Wildcats and South Dragons being the finale to the round. The Wildcats will be looking to avenge their 16 point loss to the Dragons of three days ago, as Brian Goorjian's troops visit Challenge Stadium. The Wildcats are certainly missing the presence of injured centre Paul Rogers, but coach Connor Henry will have to pull them together to get the win. The Cats will be looking for a better second half performance from star Shawn Redhage this time around and behind the Boomer forward, along with Darnell Hinson and Alex Loughton, they should come out victorious. NBL official match preview here.

A Stern Prediction: Wildcats by 4.

Other games from Round One

There were no Stern Predictions made for the following games, due to time restraints, but today saw the following results:

Tigers 92 def. Blaze 76
Hawks 111 def. Spirit 99

JR was somewhat disappointed with the Townsville Crocs' loss to Adelaide the night before, in what sounds like was just an off night -- they happen to even the best of us sometimes, John.

Tomorrow we'll recap how my Stern Predictions have fared at the end of Round One.







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NBL : It's Game Time!

The NBL season is here

A firey matchup is likely ensue tomorrow (13th Sept) as the NBL tips off with the Cairns Taipans v South Dragons. I'll keep a log of my predictions here on the site, so that I can be named and shamed when they are shown as awfully wrong as the season progresses. NBL official match preview here.

A Stern Prediction: Dragons by 3 on the road.

On Sunday, 14th Sept, the Sydney Spirit are visited by the Melbourne Tigers. Whilst this does not have the same punch as Sydney v Melbourne used to, it would be great to see a large crowd at the game. NBL official match preview here.

A Stern Prediction: Tigers by 12 on the road.

Other bits and pieces

Check out the first entertaining instalment in John Rillie's podcasting adventures.

Part 1 and Part 2 of the ...a stern warning NBL season previews are there for the criticising. The final part will be up tomorrow.

Do you remember British Knights shoes?

Shawn Kemp is in Italy now and he likes the sea.

New Dragon Adam Gibson is shamed by WHB's fashion police.

Hey kids, do you like Facebook and Luke Martin? Well then join the group to get the NBL to let him back into the league.

Should Coach K be leading an NBA team?

Keep up with the latest on NBA 2K9 here.

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NBL 2008/09 Season Previews : Part 2

With the start of the NBL season only a day away, here is Part 2 of ...a stern warning's Season Preview series. If you missed Part 1, you can find it here.


MELBOURNE TIGERS

Once again, the Tigers are regarded as the top ticket in the league this season. After the controversial signing of Ebi Ere from under the nose of cross-town rivals the Dragons, the plucking of Singapore Slingers import Rod Grizzard and the homecoming of former NBL MVP, Sam Mackinnon, few can argue that the Tigers go into this season as heavy favourites. They will also be marked men.

GUARDS

Outside of Darryl MacDonald’s reign in Tiger-town, the team has long been content without a pure point guard on the roster (remember Messrs Gaze and Copeland?) and it has not caused them any great difficulties. Coach Al Westover will be hoping that this is the case again this season, as Nathan Crosswell off the bench is the only player who could be regarded as a genuine NBL point guard.

Ebi Ere certainly knows no peer when it comes to explosive performances on Australian professional basketball courts. His scoring parlays have become legendary, dating back to his heroic Finals performances with the Sydney Kings. The Tigers were very happy to have snared his services as there are few in the league that can stop the swingman when he gets going – penetrating or bombing away from the outside. Ere is not known as a particularly strong player in other aspects of the game, but perhaps this is purely because his scoring ability outshines all other nuances so much.

David Barlow, fresh off an acclaimed Boomers campaign in Beijing, will likely be assigned much of the point guard duties. This is something that many outsiders question, as he has not been known as a great ball-handler or decision maker in the past and is best suited to being set up for the spot-up perimeter shot. However the reality is that the Tigers will bring the ball up court through a number of means, including the use of Ere. Barlow is one of the most promising stars of the competition. The “Prototype” has a strong NBA-type body and extremely efficient shooting percentages from all ranges. If not for the dearth of talent on this roster, you would think he’s set for a breakout season.

Daryl Corletto has long hung in the back drops for the Tigers as a sharpshooter, looking for his opportunity to grab the starting two-guard slot. He will have to wait at least another year to be given a starring role on this squad.

FORWARDS

Rod Grizzard is as versatile as they come. In Singapore he was forced to take on a scoring load in a losing program and the move to the Tigers will no doubt show other qualities in his game. The Tigers plan to use him at the small forward position and he will shoot a lot more from the perimeter than he did with the Slingers. He contributes on the boards, passes well and is a great defender – more than an adequate replacement for Dave Thomas.

Sam Mackinnon is coming off an injury-riddled season which also forced him to miss the Olympics. Reports are that he is slowly regaining his old touch and the Tigers will be hoping to see some of the 2006-07 MVP Slammin’ Sam, rather than last year’s beaten down version. Mackinnon has always given me the impression that he is much happier being an extra cog than the star of the team and he certainly will have that opportunity here in Melbourne. The superstar role player, for want of a better term, is one of the best individual defenders that Australia has seen and can guard everything from point guards to centres. His athleticism is still impressive, despite his numerous injuries over the years and his jump shot is much more reliable than it was in his early years.

Stephen Hoare, perennial sixth man of the year candidate, gives Westover an unspectacularly solid option off the bench to cover for either Grizzard or Mackinnon. An extremely efficient player who is not afraid to hustle, many teams would like to have his no-nonsense 10 and 5 game on board.

Tommy Greer has shown plenty of promise as he has been mentored by the various Tigers greats in recent years and he continues to bring his youthful exuberance off the bench this season.

CENTRE

It’s not often that a team can boast the league’s two previous MVPs, as well as a solid runner up to the crown, but that is what the Tigers have with Chris Anstey being joined by Mackinnon and Ere. Since returning from his European and NBA years, Anstey has been near unstoppable in the NBL. His propensity to sit on the perimeter has often been criticised, but the reality remains that he is a deadly three point shooter, whilst still providing a solid presence in the key on the other end of the court. After some strong moments in Beijing, he shows no sign of slowing down and could well take more than one trophy home at the end of 2008-09.

Daniel Johnson, formerly of Pepperdine, came home to Australia citing homesickness and the Tigers gladly took his services on as a backup to Anstey. He may struggle if forced to play major minutes early on (where injury or foul trouble strikes) but by the end of the season may well be a valuable contributor off the bench.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 1st.

This Tigers team is absolutely and undeniably stacked. The only question mark will come in their ability to handle the ball under pressure, given their lack of a pure point guard. Outside of that, they can shoot the lights out from one through to five, can defend virtually anything thrown at them and will likely boast the tallest team in the league. Anything less than a title will be a disappointment, but there are a couple of teams out there that have very solid claims to de-throwning the defending champs.


NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS

It seems like so long ago that the Breakers signed CJ Bruton, under much scrutiny. That of course was before the collapse of Bruton’s former teams the Brisbane Bullets and Sydney Kings. The Breakers have quietly been building upon last season’s strong squad and look to make push into the upper echelons of the NBL for the first time. They seem to have almost all of the right tools to take them there.

GUARDS

CJ Bruton has yet to reach the downward spiral of his career. The son of Cal Bruton has done a lot in his time, since that first big half-court shot for the Wildcats started his career off in fine form. In terms of running a club, Bruton is the class act that everyone else has to follow in this league. He proved this again with a solid showing at the Olympics last month. Once CJ gets on a hot streak from the perimeter, he is a game changer. His ball distribution is excellent and this will no doubt free up his gun-happy teammates from long range.

Kirk Penney has shown that his years in the NBA were not undeserved. The Tall Black has great size and range. His ability to put points on the board will only be improved this season with the arrival of Bruton to take pressure off him. Last season he averaged 24.2ppg (2nd in the league) and knocked down 3.6 treys per contest (1st in the league) and the number of open threes he gets this season will only increase.

Phill Jones, with two L’s, formed the other half of New Zealand’s long-bombing tandem last season. The 34-year old shooting guard has had some huge performances internationally for the Tall Blacks in the past and appears to still have petrol in the tank to keep it up for the Breakers this year.

Paul Henare has often been doubted as the point guard to lead the Breakers. A solid defender who lacks in the shooting department,. with Bruton on board Henare will not be forced to do more than provide relief off the bench.

FORWARDS

Oscar Forman’s game continues to blossom. A lanky shooter from deep, he has the height to cause problems for opposing defences and will help out on the boards as well, from the small forward position. The Breakers will hope that his emergence continues this season.

Tony “the Bear” Ronaldson is still getting around. His rear end has boxed out for many a rebound and he is still the master of the three after trailing on the break. The perfect veteran presence for a team that wants to win – the only concern being that he may not be able to hold his own on the boards any more as he used to and the Breakers may lack in this department at the four spot.

Dillon Boucher returns home to NZ from the Brisbane Bullets. A hard nosed defender in the mould of former Sydney King, Tim Morrissey, he has gotten under many skins in the NBL. His hustle approach brings a change of pace to Forman’s long range, finesse game.

CENTRE

Rick Rickert could argue himself to be the most dominant force under the basket in the league right now. His 6’11” frame was sidelined for all bar 13 games last season by injury (with fellow former NBAer Derrick Alston filling in admirably) but he managed 17.8ppg and 10.7rpg when active. He will certainly be the focus down low for the Breakers as there is currently no other force of note in the low block.

Tim Behrendorff has a big body which has yet to prove its usefulness at the top level. His size provides temporary insurance should Rickert miss any time.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 6th

The Breakers are talking much bigger things than sixth place at the moment, however they will struggle mightily on the boards this season, unless they pull another import out of the bag within the points cap to help Rickert down low. The loss of Mika Vukona to the Dragons may prove costly in this respect. On the bright side, the Breakers will shoot the lights out every night with Bruton, Penney, Jones and Forman treating opposing baskets like a shooting gallery. Making the six is a realistic aim for this squad and one that they would not want to fall short of.


PERTH WILDCATS

The Tigers may have the most stacked starting lineup in the league, but no team goes deeper than the Wildcats from top to bottom. There realistically is not enough playing time to get all of these players on the court and a slow early-season start for captain Paul Rogers through knee problems may prove a blessing in disguise to get other new front court players time to gel with the team in the early going. New coach Connor Henry is an unknown quantity, but has dipped his foot into the NBA waters and certainly has the vote of confidence of his players. The Wildcats are looking for nothing less than a title this season and they will come awfully close to getting one if they don’t.

GUARDS

Darnell Hinson was an MVP forerunner in the first half of season 2007-08, before slumping slightly with the fortunes of the Razorbacks. He comes to a team where he will not be relied upon for as much scoring, but will act as more of a distributor. He may prove to be the best backcourt player in Wildcats colours since Ricky Grace. The Mike Tyson lookalike is tough as nails and is the type of player that exudes playoff confidence – perfect for a team like this. His statistics across the board last season were very impressive and he will pair nicely on defence in the backcourt with fellow ball-thief, Peter Crawford.

Crawford has proven to be a team leader and consistent contributor since his move across from Queensland. His athleticism has been complemented in recent times by a sweet three point shot and he consistently helps out on the boards and forces his share of turnovers. Unfortunately he has been prone to turnovers himself, but with the ball in Hinson’s hands he should be free to operate without any undue pressure.

On many other teams, Brad Robbins would be a starter, but given the state of the league today he will have to be happy with a backup role with the Wildcats. The youngster is a quality defender and will look to snare minutes where possible.

Adam Caporn once had a promising career ahead of him and looked like a future NBL starting point guard in his time with the Wollongong Hawks. However injuries and lack of opportunity have set him back and he will struggle to get consistent minutes on this team.

FORWARDS

Stephen Weigh is the favourite for rookie of the year after a successful USA college run. He is known as a solid, athletic defender and can swing between the two and three positions. The Wildcats were lucky for him to fall into their laps after the demise of the Bullets.

Shawn Redhage will be fresh as a daisy at the start of this season after Brian Goorjian did not trouble him much in the Olympics, playing the perennial MVP candidate sparingly. Redhage (22.9ppg, 8.0rpg, 3.3apg) can do it all, scoring on an array of options under the basket and from mid-range. He is the unquestioned best player on the Wildcats, though he will be pushed for that title by Hinson and this next man.

Alex Loughton is one of the fastest rising stars in the league. If not for the presence of a mountain named Jawai last season, he would have taken out Rookie of the Year honours with his 14.5ppg and 7.0rpg. No doubt he will improve on those numbers this year as he continues to prove a future leader of this team.

Isiah Victor proved the perfect complementary import with the Sydney Kings last season. He was happy to toil in the background in limited minutes, deferring to the Aussie stars of the team and when he was called upon come playoff time, he was ready. His role with the Wildcats will likely be quite similar. With the number of stars in this Perth frontcourt, minutes are limited but Victor will bring his double-double ability every night, regardless of time on the court.

The most recent signing to this team, Ben Knight completes the embarrassment of riches under the basket for the Cats. Knight is the ultimate success story. A guy from the Western Suburbs of Sydney, he has fought through a tough upbringing and a journeyman career to be one of the most respected forwards in the league. He rebounds like a mad man and can hit the mid-range jumper. I bet he’s happy to be back finally on Aussie soil again too.

CENTRE

Captain Paul Rogers will possibly miss game one due to knee problems, which have beset him in recent years, however his mind will be set on being available down the stretch to take this team all the way. His size and experience gives the Wildcats the ability to match up with any opponent down low, whether they want to go big or go fast with Loughton. Rogers (12.2ppg, 9.2rpg, 1.2bpg), a former league MVP, may be taking more of a back seat to other teammates these days, but make no mistake that he will dominate in the paint when he is needed in the same mould as a Mark Bradtke or John Dorge of yesteryear.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 2nd.

Many are proclaiming this season as a two horse race between the two Melbourne teams, but I’m inclined to think that with the lineup that Perth has and the time that Rogers-Redhage-Crawford have had to mould as a core, they will be the ones pushing the Tigers for the championship trophy. The sheer depth of the Cats mean that a not even a mild earthquake could disrupt their season and they are filled with quality players that appear to be happy to operate as a team. The real wildcard in all of this is how coach Henry leads this group. With the talent he has at his disposal, it’s almost make or break for him in only his first season at the reigns.







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The Gaze TV NBL Show : Round 1

Here's a preview on round 1 of the NBL championship, with the Gaze Factor himself. Obviously this is very Melbourne-centric, but gives an insight into the adjustment of the Tigers' three key new signings. A couple of initial impressions on this video:

1. That is an impressively big microphone that Drewey is holding; and

2. Has Gaze grown or has Mark Bradtke shrunk?





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