NBL 2008/09 Season Previews : Part 3

Here is Part 3 of the ...a stern warning NBL 2008/09 Season Preview. This was to be the final part in the series, however in a frustrating turn of events, the blogger software decided to delete half of the Spirit and the entire Townsville Crocs and Wollongong Hawks posts before publishing. So the final two teams will come tomorrow! Frustrating actually isn't a strong enough word...

SOUTH DRAGONS

The Dragons have burst from the flames of last season's disappointment to clean the slate for a new and exciting beginning behind the signings of all-time great coach Brian Goorjian, Boomers star Mark Worthington and a host of other pieces. After a 5-25 finish to 2007-08, the Dragons will be looking for a complete turnaround of fortunes with the new team put together this season. There is no reason that this team should not be pushing for a title claim.

GUARDS

Cortez Groves has spent enough time in the league to know the lie of the land. A solid scorer who enjoys gambling on defence, Goorjian will be looking to transform him into the player he was in Wollongong, rather than the one he was in the Dragons' season to forget. If he can return to his 22ppg 5apg 3rpg form, the fans have an exciting backcourt to rely upon this season.

Joe Ingles is still in South Dragons colours, which makes for a happy ball club. Whilst there has been talk that the super-versatile 6'9" swingman could be Europe-bound this season, there has been nothing concrete on that front as yet and it appears that he will play in the NBL this season before making his big shot at the NBA in 2009. His size allows him to do almost anything he wants on the court and he demonstrated during the Olympics that he is not afraid of playing in big games or taking on quality opponents, despite his slight frame. The coaching of Goorjian will only continue to develop his game to the level required for that next step.

Adam Gibson was one of the most prized youngsters to become available during this off-season. Viewed as a future Boomer, he has improved in all of his three seasons with the Brisbane Bullets until the team's collapse meant that he needed a new home. A good ball distributor, last season he averaged 11.5ppg, 4.0apg and shot well from all over the court.

Nathan Herbert and Rhys Carter were two of the best-performed players in pre-season games this year. The two youngsters shot the lights out for the Dragons whilst two of their teammates were playing on Boomers duty and their imports were not in town. They are unlikely to get the same sort of chance to shine with the full compliment of talent on board, but Goorjian-led teams always get the green light to shoot the three, which should suit these two just fine.

FORWARDS

Tremmell Darden comes into this league as a relative unknown. However the 6'5" swingman will no doubt be moulded into the Goorjian defensive mould, or else he wouldn't be in town in the first place. He is known as a strong athlete, with a good ability to penetrate. In short, a very similar player to teammate Cortez Groves. He will likely spend most of his time at small forward, whilst also playing off guard at times.

Mark Worthington has proven himself to be one of the premier players in this league and he will only improve this season after a solid Boomers campaign in Beijing. This guy does not back down at either end of the court (just ask Shawn Redhage) and will be many teams' nightmare this season. Capable of putting up 20+ points on a nightly basis, whilst also shutting down opposing forwards of all sizes, he'll likely be required to start at power forward.

Mika Vukona is the type of glue player that Brian Goorjian loves and was no doubt targeted by Goorj early in the recruitment process. He's not a big time scorer but will pull down double figure rebounds in a short number of minutes and plays solid defence. He is the perfect player to bring off the bench for energy down the stretch.

CENTRE

Nick Horvath is looking for a reawakening. Another player that appears to have been trapped in a South Dragons "Heal era" induced lull, he started his NBL career as an extremely dominant big man. Already in the pre-season and first up game against the Taipans he has proven that he is back on track for regular 20-10 nights and the Dragons will expect no less of him if they want to meet the lofty title expectations of their fans.

Matt Burston is as good as they get in terms of backup centres in this league. His early career in Perth promised much and it has only been injuries which have held him back from being a serious shot at the Boomers squad. The tutelage of the Boomers coach will definitely help his cause though. Look for a very strong resurgence from Burston this season.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 3rd

There is a recurring theme in the above analysis, Brian Goorjian. The arrival of the most highly regarded coach in Australian basketball history has set expectations high for this squad immediately. Goorjian's winning mentality and track record have made for his "homecoming" being the revival of Melbourne's basketball cross-town rivalry. The fact that be attracted Worthington, Gibson and Vukona into the fold helps as well. It is not often that a team that finished last is expected to challenge for the title, but I can't see them falling behind more teams than Perth and Melbourne this season.


SYDNEY SPIRIT

The name West Sydney Razorbacks may no longer exist, but the reputation as a hustling, never-say-die team that coach Rod Beveridge established last season will still be there. At least, it better be if the Spirit hope to avoid a wooden spoon finish in 2009. "Bevo" has put together a solid squad of youngsters that rely on defence and team work to win games. The two new imports this season will have their work cut out for them to save this team from the bottom of the heap.

GUARDS

Derrick Low has already stated in the media that he enjoys playing for an underdog, as he did in college, and the Hawaiian may get the chance to surprise some teams. Low seems to be the type of player who was born to lead a team from the front. He has a great outside shot which he put down in bunches during the NCAA Sweet Sixteen and he'll have to bring that to step into the ample shoes of the departed Darnell Hinson. The Spirit could have done a lot worse than bringing in this guy to lead the team.

Jason Smith was a publicity signing, if nothing else. After the finalisation of the Sydney Kings collapse and the Razorbacks' decision to become the Spirit, the approaching of Smith was the best marketing ploy the team could make to try and bring the basketball fans of Sydney together. Unfortunately for the team the Boomers defensive stalwart will be injured for the first half of the season, but his leadership from the bench will be a boost in the meantime. When healthy, there is no better defender at the two position and his outside shot is a constant threat.

Damian Martin's injury ten games into last season killed the momentum of this team, proving how valuable the terrier is to this club. His defensive intensity gnaws at opposing offences from baseline to baseline and he forms the core of Beveridge's plans to take teams by surprise. He is not much of an offensive threat, but knows how to get on the boards and is the type of player who will help out a team by his very presence.

Drew Williamson was a solid addition to the club from Townsville and will likely get a chance to show off his outside shot whilst Smith is still out injured.

FORWARDS

Matthew Knight is the standout of this team and had a spectacular rookie campaign, averaging close to a double-double. He will definitely follow that up with improvement this season as he tries to stamp his authority as the commander of the boards.

David Gruber is not the most heralded import signing that this league has seen, but he is a solid blue collar worker in the paint who will use his undersized frame to get on the boards and put in his share of dunks, as he has shown in his time in the SEABL.

Liam Rush at the three position is a player on the verge of making the Boomers and just needs to take an extra step in his development to become that player that teams key on defensively. An athletic player who can get to the basket, his outside shot has become reliable enough and he helps out on defence -- a must on this team.

Graeme Dann has been described by many as one of the most frustrating players in the league due to his outstanding potential and talent which he never seems to capitalise on. His big body and ball handling ability allow him to play anything from point guard to small forward and he shows flashes of brilliance intermittently but has not shown the consistency to be a regular contributor in this league.

Clint Reed can fill up the hole, however he will not get the minutes he needs to do that on this squad.

CENTRE

Julian Khazzouh is a young centre with a scoring touch inside, who probably doesn't rebound as much as he should. However with the presence of Knight and Gruber down low, he can afford to do his thing on offence and at the other end is a good enough shot blocker to cause some problems.

Tony Rampton has proven himself in many seasons of Australian and New Zealand basketball as a quality rebounder and interior scorer. He is the perfect big body to have coming off the bench.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 9th

This team lacks a quality scorer and thus, despite the defensive and teamwork principles that Bevo preaches, it will be hard for them to move out of the lower estuaries of the ladder. They will cause their share of upsets over the course of the season, but will not be the winning team that Sydney requires for the fans to get involved.



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NBL 2008/09 Season Previews : Part 2

With the start of the NBL season only a day away, here is Part 2 of ...a stern warning's Season Preview series. If you missed Part 1, you can find it here.


MELBOURNE TIGERS

Once again, the Tigers are regarded as the top ticket in the league this season. After the controversial signing of Ebi Ere from under the nose of cross-town rivals the Dragons, the plucking of Singapore Slingers import Rod Grizzard and the homecoming of former NBL MVP, Sam Mackinnon, few can argue that the Tigers go into this season as heavy favourites. They will also be marked men.

GUARDS

Outside of Darryl MacDonald’s reign in Tiger-town, the team has long been content without a pure point guard on the roster (remember Messrs Gaze and Copeland?) and it has not caused them any great difficulties. Coach Al Westover will be hoping that this is the case again this season, as Nathan Crosswell off the bench is the only player who could be regarded as a genuine NBL point guard.

Ebi Ere certainly knows no peer when it comes to explosive performances on Australian professional basketball courts. His scoring parlays have become legendary, dating back to his heroic Finals performances with the Sydney Kings. The Tigers were very happy to have snared his services as there are few in the league that can stop the swingman when he gets going – penetrating or bombing away from the outside. Ere is not known as a particularly strong player in other aspects of the game, but perhaps this is purely because his scoring ability outshines all other nuances so much.

David Barlow, fresh off an acclaimed Boomers campaign in Beijing, will likely be assigned much of the point guard duties. This is something that many outsiders question, as he has not been known as a great ball-handler or decision maker in the past and is best suited to being set up for the spot-up perimeter shot. However the reality is that the Tigers will bring the ball up court through a number of means, including the use of Ere. Barlow is one of the most promising stars of the competition. The “Prototype” has a strong NBA-type body and extremely efficient shooting percentages from all ranges. If not for the dearth of talent on this roster, you would think he’s set for a breakout season.

Daryl Corletto has long hung in the back drops for the Tigers as a sharpshooter, looking for his opportunity to grab the starting two-guard slot. He will have to wait at least another year to be given a starring role on this squad.

FORWARDS

Rod Grizzard is as versatile as they come. In Singapore he was forced to take on a scoring load in a losing program and the move to the Tigers will no doubt show other qualities in his game. The Tigers plan to use him at the small forward position and he will shoot a lot more from the perimeter than he did with the Slingers. He contributes on the boards, passes well and is a great defender – more than an adequate replacement for Dave Thomas.

Sam Mackinnon is coming off an injury-riddled season which also forced him to miss the Olympics. Reports are that he is slowly regaining his old touch and the Tigers will be hoping to see some of the 2006-07 MVP Slammin’ Sam, rather than last year’s beaten down version. Mackinnon has always given me the impression that he is much happier being an extra cog than the star of the team and he certainly will have that opportunity here in Melbourne. The superstar role player, for want of a better term, is one of the best individual defenders that Australia has seen and can guard everything from point guards to centres. His athleticism is still impressive, despite his numerous injuries over the years and his jump shot is much more reliable than it was in his early years.

Stephen Hoare, perennial sixth man of the year candidate, gives Westover an unspectacularly solid option off the bench to cover for either Grizzard or Mackinnon. An extremely efficient player who is not afraid to hustle, many teams would like to have his no-nonsense 10 and 5 game on board.

Tommy Greer has shown plenty of promise as he has been mentored by the various Tigers greats in recent years and he continues to bring his youthful exuberance off the bench this season.

CENTRE

It’s not often that a team can boast the league’s two previous MVPs, as well as a solid runner up to the crown, but that is what the Tigers have with Chris Anstey being joined by Mackinnon and Ere. Since returning from his European and NBA years, Anstey has been near unstoppable in the NBL. His propensity to sit on the perimeter has often been criticised, but the reality remains that he is a deadly three point shooter, whilst still providing a solid presence in the key on the other end of the court. After some strong moments in Beijing, he shows no sign of slowing down and could well take more than one trophy home at the end of 2008-09.

Daniel Johnson, formerly of Pepperdine, came home to Australia citing homesickness and the Tigers gladly took his services on as a backup to Anstey. He may struggle if forced to play major minutes early on (where injury or foul trouble strikes) but by the end of the season may well be a valuable contributor off the bench.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 1st.

This Tigers team is absolutely and undeniably stacked. The only question mark will come in their ability to handle the ball under pressure, given their lack of a pure point guard. Outside of that, they can shoot the lights out from one through to five, can defend virtually anything thrown at them and will likely boast the tallest team in the league. Anything less than a title will be a disappointment, but there are a couple of teams out there that have very solid claims to de-throwning the defending champs.


NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS

It seems like so long ago that the Breakers signed CJ Bruton, under much scrutiny. That of course was before the collapse of Bruton’s former teams the Brisbane Bullets and Sydney Kings. The Breakers have quietly been building upon last season’s strong squad and look to make push into the upper echelons of the NBL for the first time. They seem to have almost all of the right tools to take them there.

GUARDS

CJ Bruton has yet to reach the downward spiral of his career. The son of Cal Bruton has done a lot in his time, since that first big half-court shot for the Wildcats started his career off in fine form. In terms of running a club, Bruton is the class act that everyone else has to follow in this league. He proved this again with a solid showing at the Olympics last month. Once CJ gets on a hot streak from the perimeter, he is a game changer. His ball distribution is excellent and this will no doubt free up his gun-happy teammates from long range.

Kirk Penney has shown that his years in the NBA were not undeserved. The Tall Black has great size and range. His ability to put points on the board will only be improved this season with the arrival of Bruton to take pressure off him. Last season he averaged 24.2ppg (2nd in the league) and knocked down 3.6 treys per contest (1st in the league) and the number of open threes he gets this season will only increase.

Phill Jones, with two L’s, formed the other half of New Zealand’s long-bombing tandem last season. The 34-year old shooting guard has had some huge performances internationally for the Tall Blacks in the past and appears to still have petrol in the tank to keep it up for the Breakers this year.

Paul Henare has often been doubted as the point guard to lead the Breakers. A solid defender who lacks in the shooting department,. with Bruton on board Henare will not be forced to do more than provide relief off the bench.

FORWARDS

Oscar Forman’s game continues to blossom. A lanky shooter from deep, he has the height to cause problems for opposing defences and will help out on the boards as well, from the small forward position. The Breakers will hope that his emergence continues this season.

Tony “the Bear” Ronaldson is still getting around. His rear end has boxed out for many a rebound and he is still the master of the three after trailing on the break. The perfect veteran presence for a team that wants to win – the only concern being that he may not be able to hold his own on the boards any more as he used to and the Breakers may lack in this department at the four spot.

Dillon Boucher returns home to NZ from the Brisbane Bullets. A hard nosed defender in the mould of former Sydney King, Tim Morrissey, he has gotten under many skins in the NBL. His hustle approach brings a change of pace to Forman’s long range, finesse game.

CENTRE

Rick Rickert could argue himself to be the most dominant force under the basket in the league right now. His 6’11” frame was sidelined for all bar 13 games last season by injury (with fellow former NBAer Derrick Alston filling in admirably) but he managed 17.8ppg and 10.7rpg when active. He will certainly be the focus down low for the Breakers as there is currently no other force of note in the low block.

Tim Behrendorff has a big body which has yet to prove its usefulness at the top level. His size provides temporary insurance should Rickert miss any time.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 6th

The Breakers are talking much bigger things than sixth place at the moment, however they will struggle mightily on the boards this season, unless they pull another import out of the bag within the points cap to help Rickert down low. The loss of Mika Vukona to the Dragons may prove costly in this respect. On the bright side, the Breakers will shoot the lights out every night with Bruton, Penney, Jones and Forman treating opposing baskets like a shooting gallery. Making the six is a realistic aim for this squad and one that they would not want to fall short of.


PERTH WILDCATS

The Tigers may have the most stacked starting lineup in the league, but no team goes deeper than the Wildcats from top to bottom. There realistically is not enough playing time to get all of these players on the court and a slow early-season start for captain Paul Rogers through knee problems may prove a blessing in disguise to get other new front court players time to gel with the team in the early going. New coach Connor Henry is an unknown quantity, but has dipped his foot into the NBA waters and certainly has the vote of confidence of his players. The Wildcats are looking for nothing less than a title this season and they will come awfully close to getting one if they don’t.

GUARDS

Darnell Hinson was an MVP forerunner in the first half of season 2007-08, before slumping slightly with the fortunes of the Razorbacks. He comes to a team where he will not be relied upon for as much scoring, but will act as more of a distributor. He may prove to be the best backcourt player in Wildcats colours since Ricky Grace. The Mike Tyson lookalike is tough as nails and is the type of player that exudes playoff confidence – perfect for a team like this. His statistics across the board last season were very impressive and he will pair nicely on defence in the backcourt with fellow ball-thief, Peter Crawford.

Crawford has proven to be a team leader and consistent contributor since his move across from Queensland. His athleticism has been complemented in recent times by a sweet three point shot and he consistently helps out on the boards and forces his share of turnovers. Unfortunately he has been prone to turnovers himself, but with the ball in Hinson’s hands he should be free to operate without any undue pressure.

On many other teams, Brad Robbins would be a starter, but given the state of the league today he will have to be happy with a backup role with the Wildcats. The youngster is a quality defender and will look to snare minutes where possible.

Adam Caporn once had a promising career ahead of him and looked like a future NBL starting point guard in his time with the Wollongong Hawks. However injuries and lack of opportunity have set him back and he will struggle to get consistent minutes on this team.

FORWARDS

Stephen Weigh is the favourite for rookie of the year after a successful USA college run. He is known as a solid, athletic defender and can swing between the two and three positions. The Wildcats were lucky for him to fall into their laps after the demise of the Bullets.

Shawn Redhage will be fresh as a daisy at the start of this season after Brian Goorjian did not trouble him much in the Olympics, playing the perennial MVP candidate sparingly. Redhage (22.9ppg, 8.0rpg, 3.3apg) can do it all, scoring on an array of options under the basket and from mid-range. He is the unquestioned best player on the Wildcats, though he will be pushed for that title by Hinson and this next man.

Alex Loughton is one of the fastest rising stars in the league. If not for the presence of a mountain named Jawai last season, he would have taken out Rookie of the Year honours with his 14.5ppg and 7.0rpg. No doubt he will improve on those numbers this year as he continues to prove a future leader of this team.

Isiah Victor proved the perfect complementary import with the Sydney Kings last season. He was happy to toil in the background in limited minutes, deferring to the Aussie stars of the team and when he was called upon come playoff time, he was ready. His role with the Wildcats will likely be quite similar. With the number of stars in this Perth frontcourt, minutes are limited but Victor will bring his double-double ability every night, regardless of time on the court.

The most recent signing to this team, Ben Knight completes the embarrassment of riches under the basket for the Cats. Knight is the ultimate success story. A guy from the Western Suburbs of Sydney, he has fought through a tough upbringing and a journeyman career to be one of the most respected forwards in the league. He rebounds like a mad man and can hit the mid-range jumper. I bet he’s happy to be back finally on Aussie soil again too.

CENTRE

Captain Paul Rogers will possibly miss game one due to knee problems, which have beset him in recent years, however his mind will be set on being available down the stretch to take this team all the way. His size and experience gives the Wildcats the ability to match up with any opponent down low, whether they want to go big or go fast with Loughton. Rogers (12.2ppg, 9.2rpg, 1.2bpg), a former league MVP, may be taking more of a back seat to other teammates these days, but make no mistake that he will dominate in the paint when he is needed in the same mould as a Mark Bradtke or John Dorge of yesteryear.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 2nd.

Many are proclaiming this season as a two horse race between the two Melbourne teams, but I’m inclined to think that with the lineup that Perth has and the time that Rogers-Redhage-Crawford have had to mould as a core, they will be the ones pushing the Tigers for the championship trophy. The sheer depth of the Cats mean that a not even a mild earthquake could disrupt their season and they are filled with quality players that appear to be happy to operate as a team. The real wildcard in all of this is how coach Henry leads this group. With the talent he has at his disposal, it’s almost make or break for him in only his first season at the reigns.







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NBL 2008/09 Season Previews : Part 1

Today ...a stern warning brings you Part 1 of our National Basketball League Season Previews for 2008/09. This season sees one of the greater concentrations of talent in NBL history, due to the removal of three teams from the competition. With that shift in talent comes a lot of uncertainty, making it perhaps the most exciting championship to be decided in league history.

ADELAIDE 36ERS

Adelaide should be one of the most improved teams in the league this year. Despite the loss of star import Julius Hodge (whose NBA ambitions had to be submitted to), the Sixers have done well to recruit a stacked roster. Arguably the two biggest Australian signings were snared by Adelaide in the off-season, in former Baylor point guard Aaron Bruce and former NBA centre Luke Schenscher. They certainly had no problems last season in putting points on the board, unfortunately they allowed their opponents to do the same and they will hope to address that this year with the big red-head inside to intimidate.

Despite the key signings bringing excitement to the City of Churches, the fact remains that the two are untested at NBL level and existing teammates Brett Maher, Adam Ballinger and co do not know what to expect from this season.

GUARDS

Combo guard Brett Maher is an Adelaide institution. The sharp-shooter has seen a lot of success and more recently failure, punctuated by injury and off-court pains, in Sixers colours. As he nears the end of his storied career, he is lucky to have some support in the backcourt.

Aaron Bruce has proven at the collegiate level that he can run a team. He can score the ball and distribute well. Well enough indeed that he has had serious interest from NBA clubs in the lead up to this past NBA draft. He is a near certainty to be in Boomers colours for much of his career and Adelaide will hope to keep him around for as long as possible.

Brad Davidson was a solid performer for a struggling Adelaide side last season. His 13.3ppg, 4.5apg and 3.3rpg ensured a steady presence in the backcourt, whilst Maher missed much of the season. The Queenslander and former Townsville Finalist comes into this season with niggling injuries, so may start slowly.

Promising youngster Ryan Kersten will provide additional support at the point, along with Erik Burdon.

FORWARDS

Mark Tyndale is largely unknown in Australia, but comes to Adelaide with an impressive NCAA resume. He seems to the type of player that can do a bit of everything and will be called upon to play the two and three spots for the Sixers, covering the role left by Julius Hodge.

Adam Ballinger has been one of the most underrated and quietly spectacular performers in the NBL for some time now, originally with the Titans, then the Hawks and now with the Sixers. Balls does a bit of everything, from rebounding and shot-blocking to drilling three point bombs. All of this with deadly efficiency. He forms a solid base for the Adelaide front-line to rely upon.

Similarly, Jacob Holmes’ presence on the bench gives the Sixers an all-round weapon. Holmes returned to Adelaide, along with coach Scott Ninnis, from the South Dragons. Holmes is an undersized, yet excellent rebounder and can score inside and out. Not many teams can boast a player of his skill off the bench.

CENTRE

Big Bird, Luke Schenscher, is a 7’1” pillar to be reckoned with in the key. His size combined with skill is near to unprecedented at NBL level and he certainly will provide the Sixers with a second layer of defence, despite his apparent lack of foot-speed. He can score steadily inside on simple shots and will grab his fair share of rebounds, complementing Ballinger well.

David Cooper is somewhat the opposite of Schensch inside. An undersized energy player, he will block shots like crazy when on court and relies on his agility and hustle to help the team out, making him a fan favourite wherever he goes.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 7th

Despite great strides in the off-season, the ten team competition means that every squad is stacked, so the Sixers have merely kept with the status quo of the league. Add that to the fact that a new coach and new key components to the roster will take some getting used to, and the Sixers will struggle to crack the top six.

CAIRNS TAIPANS

Once again the Taipans have built an impressive roster going into this season. They seem to be loaded with stars at every position and the loss of Nathan Jawai to the NBA has been nicely covered by the addition of do-it-all Canadian Dave Thomas and former King, Ian Crosswhite. However, as with last season, much will come down to the health of Stephen Black, Martin Cattalini and Darnell Mee.

GUARDS

Stephen Black is as good as they come in the NBL right now as a backcourt shooter. The fact that he has been unavailable for Boomers duties in recent times is nothing but a shame. He has encountered his fair share (or an unfair share) of injuries and once again this will be a concern for the ‘Pans going into 2008-09. Not many around the league can produce the quality of his 17 and 5 game, but can he keep it on the court? He played 31 games last season. Will he replicate or beat that? That is the question.

Darnell Mee is another example of a player who has shown so much skill and class in his time, yet currently struggles to be there for tip-off time. Mee is the type of player who can control both ends of the court and has the size to give nightmares to opposing backcourts. His naturalisation was a boon for the Boomers which soon after turned into disappointment as he appeared not to have the same gas in the tank as he used to. If the supporting cast is on target, then he can be a great piece to complement the rest of this squad.

Gary Boodnikoff will swing between the two and the three positions and provides an excellent touch from the outside, coupled with good size. After an extremely promising 2005-06 season, he never seems to have recovered from a 2006 injury which has seen his remarkable shooting percentages plummet. The Taipans will be hoping that he is back to this old form (15ppg, 5rpg, 51% FG) and can lead the charge where Mee and Black miss time.

Kerry Williams and Scott Cook are two promising guards whose numbers will be called if injury strikes the aforementioned stars.

FORWARDS

Martin Cattalini is a perennial MVP candidate who missed half of last season with an achilles injury and will be preparing to come back firing in 2008-09. 2006-07 saw what Catt is capable of, with a 24 and 7 season making him a near unstoppable target for opposing defences. Look for him to return resoundingly this season as he tries to bring the Taipans back to prominence.

Dave Thomas is one of the most respected players in the NBL and has proven that he will fit into any squad in his time with both Canberra and Melbourne. As one of the league’s premier defenders, his arrival in Cairns was met with much fanfare. More than anyone, Thomas’ tempo-setting play may determine the fate of the team this season.

Larry Abney, “the Birdman” will man both the power forward and centre spot this season. His high-flying play is not as impressive as it was when he first entered the league with Townsville, but he certainly is capable of putting up a double-double every night and setting the crowd alight with some impressive jams. The arrival of a big man inside may mean that Abney can ply his trade more efficiently at the four position.

Aaron Grabau is a Taipans institution. Having his number retired this week, the athletic swingman will fill in admirably off the bench and play his trademark defence and put down the dunks afforded to him. The type of player that every team needs.

CENTRE

Ian Crosswhite proved himself to be a surprisingly versatile big man in his time with the Sydney Kings. As someone who is a legitimate 6’11”, yet can pass the ball out of the high post and can even occasionally knock down an outside jumper, Cairns did well to secure him from the Kings fallout. Abney will likely start at centre, but Crossy will no doubt play a large number of minutes, particularly against teams with solid centres like New Zealand and Perth.

Matt Smith has been a success story in his short in and out of the squad and provides energy when called upon at the end of the bench. When given the opportunity he performs.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 4th

Much of this team’s showing depends on injuries and the potential continued decline of Darnell Mee. Fourth would appear that the best that this team can hope for, but realistically they could fall anywhere from 3rd through to 6th. They certainly play all of the right cards in terms of having shooters, solid defenders and low post scorers – they just need to put it all together this season or risk another disappointment.


GOLD COAST BLAZE

The Blaze are potentially the hardest team to predict in this championship. They have an aged superstar at the point, backed up by a totally unproven youngster. Their go-to player at shooting guard is injured as the season commences. They have a quality import who has guarded Michael Jordan in the NBA who is returning from a stroke. Their other import is an undersized power forward who arrived halfway through last season and a series of retreads and journeymen manning the rest of their front court arsenal. Their new coach, Brendan Joyce has had a mixture of championship success and bottom-of-the-barrel failure and will try to mould this into a team that overachieves.

GUARDS

Shane Heal is no doubt the most well known name still in Australian basketball. He can shoot the ball with alarming range and brings cockiness to any squad he joins. However his recent adventures with the South Dragons have been panned by many as a failure and the results certainly indicated as much. Playing under friend Joyce may mould his game into a strong veteran presence and take away the stress of captain-coaching that he had in Victoria. There will be plenty of people looking to see the Hammer fail on the Gold Coast and the blonde bomber will do everything in his power to prove them wrong.

James Harvey is one of the best flat-out scorers in the league. His career has been one that has constantly just fallen short of greatness, most recently culminating in his omission from the Beijing Boomers squad which disappointed him immensely. He will be looking to prove Brian Goorjian wrong on that front, but will first need to recover from an ankle injury which has sidelined him for the pre-season and threatens to do so for some weeks to come. When he is healthy in the backcourt with Heal, defenders better look out on that perimeter.

Daniel Joyce has had a tonne of criticism lumped on his slight shoulders in his short time in the league. Labelled as turnover prone and a poor shooter, many claim he has only had minutes in his previous time in Wollongong due to nepotism. Many forget that he is only 20 years of age and still has plenty of room for growth. The situation with the Blaze will give him ample room for that development as he is the sole backup plan should Heal missed extended time, which is not unlikely at his age. Joyce is in a sink or swim situation and his father will give him every opportunity to swim.

Tyson Demos is an as yet unproven commodity at the two guard who may get a chance to show his athleticism with Harvey’s potential absence.

FORWARD

A large amount of shock ensued in the Gold Coast community when Juaquin Hawkins last year went down with a stroke. The team confirmed that they wanted him back and he is ready to go for the new season. A powerful top-notch defender at the 2/3, he will likely get the toughest assignments on that end of the court. His offensive contributions are not on par with those traditionally expected of an import, but with the backcourt that the Blaze have, he won’t be touching the ball all that much anyway.

Luke Whitehead is as unassuming as they come at the power forward position. Standing barely over 6’6”, he still managed to grab close to 10 rebounds per game last season, after arriving late to cover for Hawkins subsequent to his health scare. Statistically he has not impressed greatly in other categories, but the Blaze must like what they see as they have asked him to start afresh in 2008. Like Harvey, he opens the season with a potential setback through an ankle injury.

Pero Cameron continues to be a force, 120kg of force. The former World 1st Team member is 34 years old, but his game does not rely on athleticism, rather an unwieldy combination of finesse and brute force. Known for his ability to shoot the three and then power layups underneath, his body mass makes him one of the harder players to control. The big Kiwi’s contributions both on and off the court will be valuable to the Blaze.

Casey Frank is an impact player. A crowd favourite for his spectacularly surprising dunks in traffic, he has been somewhat inconsistent at times. The Blaze hope to get more of the massive games that he has already shown in this pre-season. Perhaps this is the season where he becomes a consistent force in this league.

Scott McGregor has seen a few NBL teams in the period between his Baby Boomer Under-23 Gold Medal and now. His Finals experience and all-round ability on the court are vital in leading this team. Whilst he may not be the leading scorer on a nightly basis, he certainly will be one of the most vocal in the locker room and will cover where gaps arise on the court.

CENTRE

Ben Melmeth, Mr Expansion Team, has played for almost every new team that has come into this league in recent times. From Hunter, to New Zealand, to Singapore to the Gold Coast he’s certainly seen his fair share of startup clubs. A soft touch in the paint along with a solid body to box out with makes him the stereotypical mobile centre. He lacks the size and shot blocking ability of some of the games behemoths and that is where the Blaze will struggle at times. They could do a lot worse than having Melmeth in the middle though.

Greg Vanderjagt, recently described by former teammate John Rillie as having hands like feet, will get his chances to play with the Blaze. His big body makes him an ever-tantalizing proposition to develop, however he has yet to reach anything more than backup status.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 8th

As must be clear by now, much of this team’s fortunes will hinge on the injury status of Harvey and Whitehead and the ability for Heal to lead this team, without grabbing too much of the spotlight for himself. They have a solid stable of big men, none of which is particularly dominant and I’m sure they wish they could trade one of those forwards for a solid veteran guard to backup Heal and Harvey. Eighth may even be a stretch for this squad, with the wooden spoon a not unlikely possibility.

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