NBL Round 4 : More Upsets To Come?

Already in Round 4 of NBL action we have seen the Wildcats beat the Tigers by 4 in Melbourne and the Taipans show up as rude visitors in New Zealand, winning by 11 at the North Shore Events Centre. Both of these, whilst not Earth-shattering, were upset victories for the visiting teams. Are there more upsets to come in Round 4?

Tonight the Wildcats try to follow up on their victory with a visit to the Wollongong Hawks. Kavossy Franklin has not been his usual self for the Hawks in the last couple of games and they will need for him to fire up if they are to beat one of the top form teams in the competition. However the Wildcats certainly have been relying on the streaky outside shots of both Darnell Hinson and Peter Crawford of late and will need their inside men to contribute to ensure the win.

A Stern Prediction: Wildcats by 8

The Gold Coast Blaze are visited tonight by the Sydney Spirit, as two of the lower rung teams of the league battle it out. Shane Heal is hopeful of leading his team to a first win of the season and pull them out of the situation of being the only team to be winless. Former Houston Rocket Juaquin Hawkins will be playing through the pain and that inspiration, along with a rabid home crowd, should be enough to pull the Blaze through to a deserved first win.

A Stern Prediction: Blaze by 5

Tomorrow night the Melbourne Tigers will host the dangerous Adelaide 36ers, who welcome the questionable fitness of Adam Ballinger and Aaron Bruce into the squad for the match. Adelaide have already shown that they are a team to be feared with numerous options all over the court, however the cornered Tigers will be looking to make up to their loss to the Wildcats and should please their home fans with a W.

A Stern Prediction: Tigers by 8

The extremely busy Wildcats will be in Sydney to take on the Spirit tomorrow night as well. This could be a rare 2008-09 opportunity for the Spirit to snare a prized scalp, with the Wildcats playing their third game in four days and possibly showing the signs of travelling across the wide Nullarbor. The Spirit have the weapons on a good night (Derrick Low, Matt Knight, Liam Rush, Dave Gruber) to shock some teams and this may be just that night.

A Stern Prediction: Spirit by 3




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NBL : Round 2 : Busy Dragons to take on Crocs

Round One of NBL action is over and the South Dragons have been busy little ballers. The only team to play three games in the first week of the season, Brian Goorjian's troops managed to come out with two wins -- both of them against the reloaded Perth Wildcats, who are smarting after the loss of captain Paul Rogers for more weeks than first thought.

Goorjian even managed to rack up his 700th career win at Challenge Stadium, after rallying his troops from a season-opening loss to the Cairns Taipans up north. Swingman Joe Ingles appears to have returned strongly from his Olympic campaign and new additions Mark Worthington, Adam Gibson and Mika Vukona have been absorbed into the side well. Imports Cortez Groves and Tremmell Darden look like they have an easy squad to work with where they won't have to shoulder the full load every night.

John Rillie's Townsville Crocodiles have recovered from their tough loss to the Adelaide 36ers and are ready to take on the Dragons in Melbourne on Thursday. The 36ers are stacked (like many teams this season) and may surprise many observers in 2008/09 (including the Stern Predictions made this preseason on this site), so the Crocs' loss to them should not be a major disappointment. It must be remembered that Townsville is in an adjustment process after a few injuries rocked their preseason preparation, along with the addition of key piece Russell Hinder and almost-addition of Rosell Ellis. In short, the Crocs are a team to be feared -- there won't be many nights this season where JR let's the opposition off that lightly.

Meanwhile Wednesday night sees the 36ers host the Sydney Spirit. This match could be a complete demolition job by the boys from South Australia if they play the same way they did versus Townsville. With Brett Maher knocking them down from all over, Aaron Bruce running the point, Mark Tyndale doing his best Julius Hodge impression and Luke Schenscher and Adam Ballinger filling up the paint, it will be tough for the Spirit to walk away with anything better than a 10 point loss. The Spirit will however get a chance for revenge if they do fall to the Sixers, with a return gig on Saturday, albeit in Canberra at the AIS, as they try to spread the NBL love back in the nation's capital.

In one of many very entertaining games this round, the New Zealand Breakers will host the Melbourne Tigers at the NSEC. This will be a very good test for the Tigers to see how strong their title credentials are. NZ are over-brimming with offensive talent, particularly from the perimeter, as CJ Bruton and Kirk Penney absolutely destroy teams on three balls. Rick Rickert will be a handful for Chris Anstey inside. But the real measure of the Breakers will be their interior D, as there isn't much going on inside apart from Rickert. Anstey, Rod Grizzard and Sam Mackinnon may well test that aspect of the NZers.

Friday night sees Shane Heal lead his Blaze boys over to Perth, where both teams try to rack up win number one for the season, as both squads find themselves at 0-2. It will be a struggle for the Blaze, as the Wildcats certainly know how to throw a party in WA and have the firepower to scare any team in this league. Meanwhile James Harvey is returning from injury and Luke Whitehead is still somewhat of a question mark.

Home cooking is always sweet. That is what the Crocs will be serving up on Saturday as they welcome the Cairns Taipans to the Swamp. Don't expect any niceties from JR, Homicide and the crew as they take on the 2-0 Taipans. Cattalini, Black and co have been firing well so far, but they will need to have rested well in their week-long break for this QLD matchup.

Round 2 Matchups and Stern Predictions

36ers v Spirit : 36ers by 11

Breakers v Tigers : Tigers by 3

Dragons v Crocodiles : Dragons by 2

Wildcats v Blaze : Wildcats by 13

Spirit v 36ers : 36ers by 1

Crocodiles v Taipans : Crocs by 6

Review of Round 1 Stern Predictions

Here are the results of Round 1, with my predicted winner with the margin in brackets, followed by the actual result in bold:

Taipans v Dragons (1) : Taipans by 6

Spirit v Tigers (12) : Tigers by 10

Dragons (4) v Wildcats : Dragons by 16

Breakers (10) v Hawks : Breakers by 21

36ers v Crocs (3) : 36ers by 27

Blaze v Taipans (11) : Taipans by 10

Wildcats (4) v Dragons : Dragons by 4

Tigers v Blaze* : Tigers by 16

Hawks v Spirit* : Hawks by 12

* No Stern Predictions were made for these games

Total Record to date: 4-3

Not doing as well as might be hoped so far -- I'm sternly warning myself as you read this!

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NBL 2008/09 Season Previews : Part 3

Here is Part 3 of the ...a stern warning NBL 2008/09 Season Preview. This was to be the final part in the series, however in a frustrating turn of events, the blogger software decided to delete half of the Spirit and the entire Townsville Crocs and Wollongong Hawks posts before publishing. So the final two teams will come tomorrow! Frustrating actually isn't a strong enough word...

SOUTH DRAGONS

The Dragons have burst from the flames of last season's disappointment to clean the slate for a new and exciting beginning behind the signings of all-time great coach Brian Goorjian, Boomers star Mark Worthington and a host of other pieces. After a 5-25 finish to 2007-08, the Dragons will be looking for a complete turnaround of fortunes with the new team put together this season. There is no reason that this team should not be pushing for a title claim.

GUARDS

Cortez Groves has spent enough time in the league to know the lie of the land. A solid scorer who enjoys gambling on defence, Goorjian will be looking to transform him into the player he was in Wollongong, rather than the one he was in the Dragons' season to forget. If he can return to his 22ppg 5apg 3rpg form, the fans have an exciting backcourt to rely upon this season.

Joe Ingles is still in South Dragons colours, which makes for a happy ball club. Whilst there has been talk that the super-versatile 6'9" swingman could be Europe-bound this season, there has been nothing concrete on that front as yet and it appears that he will play in the NBL this season before making his big shot at the NBA in 2009. His size allows him to do almost anything he wants on the court and he demonstrated during the Olympics that he is not afraid of playing in big games or taking on quality opponents, despite his slight frame. The coaching of Goorjian will only continue to develop his game to the level required for that next step.

Adam Gibson was one of the most prized youngsters to become available during this off-season. Viewed as a future Boomer, he has improved in all of his three seasons with the Brisbane Bullets until the team's collapse meant that he needed a new home. A good ball distributor, last season he averaged 11.5ppg, 4.0apg and shot well from all over the court.

Nathan Herbert and Rhys Carter were two of the best-performed players in pre-season games this year. The two youngsters shot the lights out for the Dragons whilst two of their teammates were playing on Boomers duty and their imports were not in town. They are unlikely to get the same sort of chance to shine with the full compliment of talent on board, but Goorjian-led teams always get the green light to shoot the three, which should suit these two just fine.

FORWARDS

Tremmell Darden comes into this league as a relative unknown. However the 6'5" swingman will no doubt be moulded into the Goorjian defensive mould, or else he wouldn't be in town in the first place. He is known as a strong athlete, with a good ability to penetrate. In short, a very similar player to teammate Cortez Groves. He will likely spend most of his time at small forward, whilst also playing off guard at times.

Mark Worthington has proven himself to be one of the premier players in this league and he will only improve this season after a solid Boomers campaign in Beijing. This guy does not back down at either end of the court (just ask Shawn Redhage) and will be many teams' nightmare this season. Capable of putting up 20+ points on a nightly basis, whilst also shutting down opposing forwards of all sizes, he'll likely be required to start at power forward.

Mika Vukona is the type of glue player that Brian Goorjian loves and was no doubt targeted by Goorj early in the recruitment process. He's not a big time scorer but will pull down double figure rebounds in a short number of minutes and plays solid defence. He is the perfect player to bring off the bench for energy down the stretch.

CENTRE

Nick Horvath is looking for a reawakening. Another player that appears to have been trapped in a South Dragons "Heal era" induced lull, he started his NBL career as an extremely dominant big man. Already in the pre-season and first up game against the Taipans he has proven that he is back on track for regular 20-10 nights and the Dragons will expect no less of him if they want to meet the lofty title expectations of their fans.

Matt Burston is as good as they get in terms of backup centres in this league. His early career in Perth promised much and it has only been injuries which have held him back from being a serious shot at the Boomers squad. The tutelage of the Boomers coach will definitely help his cause though. Look for a very strong resurgence from Burston this season.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 3rd

There is a recurring theme in the above analysis, Brian Goorjian. The arrival of the most highly regarded coach in Australian basketball history has set expectations high for this squad immediately. Goorjian's winning mentality and track record have made for his "homecoming" being the revival of Melbourne's basketball cross-town rivalry. The fact that be attracted Worthington, Gibson and Vukona into the fold helps as well. It is not often that a team that finished last is expected to challenge for the title, but I can't see them falling behind more teams than Perth and Melbourne this season.


SYDNEY SPIRIT

The name West Sydney Razorbacks may no longer exist, but the reputation as a hustling, never-say-die team that coach Rod Beveridge established last season will still be there. At least, it better be if the Spirit hope to avoid a wooden spoon finish in 2009. "Bevo" has put together a solid squad of youngsters that rely on defence and team work to win games. The two new imports this season will have their work cut out for them to save this team from the bottom of the heap.

GUARDS

Derrick Low has already stated in the media that he enjoys playing for an underdog, as he did in college, and the Hawaiian may get the chance to surprise some teams. Low seems to be the type of player who was born to lead a team from the front. He has a great outside shot which he put down in bunches during the NCAA Sweet Sixteen and he'll have to bring that to step into the ample shoes of the departed Darnell Hinson. The Spirit could have done a lot worse than bringing in this guy to lead the team.

Jason Smith was a publicity signing, if nothing else. After the finalisation of the Sydney Kings collapse and the Razorbacks' decision to become the Spirit, the approaching of Smith was the best marketing ploy the team could make to try and bring the basketball fans of Sydney together. Unfortunately for the team the Boomers defensive stalwart will be injured for the first half of the season, but his leadership from the bench will be a boost in the meantime. When healthy, there is no better defender at the two position and his outside shot is a constant threat.

Damian Martin's injury ten games into last season killed the momentum of this team, proving how valuable the terrier is to this club. His defensive intensity gnaws at opposing offences from baseline to baseline and he forms the core of Beveridge's plans to take teams by surprise. He is not much of an offensive threat, but knows how to get on the boards and is the type of player who will help out a team by his very presence.

Drew Williamson was a solid addition to the club from Townsville and will likely get a chance to show off his outside shot whilst Smith is still out injured.

FORWARDS

Matthew Knight is the standout of this team and had a spectacular rookie campaign, averaging close to a double-double. He will definitely follow that up with improvement this season as he tries to stamp his authority as the commander of the boards.

David Gruber is not the most heralded import signing that this league has seen, but he is a solid blue collar worker in the paint who will use his undersized frame to get on the boards and put in his share of dunks, as he has shown in his time in the SEABL.

Liam Rush at the three position is a player on the verge of making the Boomers and just needs to take an extra step in his development to become that player that teams key on defensively. An athletic player who can get to the basket, his outside shot has become reliable enough and he helps out on defence -- a must on this team.

Graeme Dann has been described by many as one of the most frustrating players in the league due to his outstanding potential and talent which he never seems to capitalise on. His big body and ball handling ability allow him to play anything from point guard to small forward and he shows flashes of brilliance intermittently but has not shown the consistency to be a regular contributor in this league.

Clint Reed can fill up the hole, however he will not get the minutes he needs to do that on this squad.

CENTRE

Julian Khazzouh is a young centre with a scoring touch inside, who probably doesn't rebound as much as he should. However with the presence of Knight and Gruber down low, he can afford to do his thing on offence and at the other end is a good enough shot blocker to cause some problems.

Tony Rampton has proven himself in many seasons of Australian and New Zealand basketball as a quality rebounder and interior scorer. He is the perfect big body to have coming off the bench.

A STERN PREDICTION

End of regular season prediction: 9th

This team lacks a quality scorer and thus, despite the defensive and teamwork principles that Bevo preaches, it will be hard for them to move out of the lower estuaries of the ladder. They will cause their share of upsets over the course of the season, but will not be the winning team that Sydney requires for the fans to get involved.



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NBL : It's Game Time!

The NBL season is here

A firey matchup is likely ensue tomorrow (13th Sept) as the NBL tips off with the Cairns Taipans v South Dragons. I'll keep a log of my predictions here on the site, so that I can be named and shamed when they are shown as awfully wrong as the season progresses. NBL official match preview here.

A Stern Prediction: Dragons by 3 on the road.

On Sunday, 14th Sept, the Sydney Spirit are visited by the Melbourne Tigers. Whilst this does not have the same punch as Sydney v Melbourne used to, it would be great to see a large crowd at the game. NBL official match preview here.

A Stern Prediction: Tigers by 12 on the road.

Other bits and pieces

Check out the first entertaining instalment in John Rillie's podcasting adventures.

Part 1 and Part 2 of the ...a stern warning NBL season previews are there for the criticising. The final part will be up tomorrow.

Do you remember British Knights shoes?

Shawn Kemp is in Italy now and he likes the sea.

New Dragon Adam Gibson is shamed by WHB's fashion police.

Hey kids, do you like Facebook and Luke Martin? Well then join the group to get the NBL to let him back into the league.

Should Coach K be leading an NBA team?

Keep up with the latest on NBA 2K9 here.

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